A tale of two systems: Ralph, Nathan and the back three

Both this season's managers spent weeks rehearsing a back three behind closed doors. Neither did well.

Once upon a time, a club called Southampton had several weeks to work their game without any competitive matches. The manager wanted three at the back, so he devised a new system and the team got to work honing their new style. When the big day came, they lost. And then they lost another. And another. They went back to their old system and things improved, but it was too little, too late. This is the story of Nathan Jones. Except four months earlier, it was Ralph’s. I hope one can learn from the other.

A quick prologue. If nothing else, the Ralphampton era was defined by the manager’s attempts to wrestle the team into his favourite shape, the sacred 4-2-2-2, with eternally mixed results. In 2020-21, Saints often seemed stuck between a rock and hard place: their inability to run the 4-2-2-2 safely for ninety minutes and their unfamiliarity with any alternative. Last season, buoyed by some new personnel, Saints were more flexible, running various systems, notably a 3-5-2 deployed to great effect against Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal. Arguably, the watering down of his core philosophy led to a degradation of the press which ultimately cost Ralph his job. But perhaps it’s no wonder that in summer 2022, again wrestling with an improved but incomplete squad, that Southampton played half of preseason in a new shape with three centre-halves.

Above is our starting XI for our final game of preseason, a 2-1 defeat to Villareal. We ran the same system against Watford and RB Leipzig. Below is the same system with slightly more likely personnel and a clearer specification of the shape. When I saw it in preseason, I read this system was as a fairly naked attempt to get Southampton’s best creative players on the pitch and higher up it, shouldering more offensive responsibility, at the expense of the 4-2-2-2. Southampton are famously blunt in Ralph’s ‘wide 10’ position and have in Che Adams about 70% of a centre-forward. At the time, our first-choice centre-halves were still Bednarek, Salisu and Stephens, an enduring liability. However, Saints were blessed with an excellent slate of full-backs, a stalwart DM, a passable ball-carrier in Stuart Armstrong, and of course JWP, now an all-action talisman who bleeds goal contributions.

The new system spoke to all of these strengths and weaknesses. From the 4-2-2-2, it involves dropping both of Ralph’s ‘wide 10s’ for an extra centre half and an extra central midfielder. Firstly and most obviously, having three centre-halves allows them to paper over each other’s limitations - Bednarek and Stephens especially are often dominated physically and for pace, and this way they all have less air and less ground to cover. What’s more interesting is how this enables Saints’ attack. Playing three centre-halves, KWP/Tino/Perraud can venture forward more freely and add the creative value on the flanks that Djenepo/Stuie/Moi simply never have. Saint’s weakest position, the ‘wide 10’, drops out of the system entirely. Instead, with starboy Lavia in the pivot, James Ward-Prowse can come off his leash into a true no.8 role, accompanied by Stuart Armstrong, Saints best ball-carrier. Up top, the Southampton striker issue remains unsolved. Except perhaps with the acquisition of Joe Aribo, we have a player who can partner Che but also drop into the channels to create a box midfield, as Trossard did to us so successfully on boxing day. All sounds wonderful right?

I thought so. And then we conceded six goals in 150 minutes against Spurs and Leeds. Turns out, having three at the back doesn’t really count for shit if your defenders can’t win their 1v1s. In fact, having three centre-backs arguably weakens the backline if you staff it with shit players. On the hour against Leeds, we switched back to ol’ faithful, turned up the heat, and equalised from 2-0 down inside half an hour. 4-2-2-2 was back, baby.

Naturally, the old problems resurfaced and we are where we are. Ralph tried different systems, some with three CBs and some with two, including a 4-1-4-1 that bore some fruits, but it didn’t matter. The new system had failed and nobody, including the players, could stand the old one any longer. I genuinely believe the that aborted preseason system is an underrated aspect of Ralph’s demise, especially when I entertain questions like, what if Bella-Kotchap had been ready to start against Spurs? What if Oriel Romeu hadn’t been sold? But I might not have to wonder much longer, as Nathan Jones is in, and word in Luton is he likes three at the back.

So here we have the curious situation where twice in 8 months, under two different managers, Saints have spent weeks rehearsing a 5-3-2/3-4-3 in their back gardens, before having it shredded by the first available Premier League opposition and reverting to a back four. I won’t offer any analysis of Jones’ efforts because I’m on holiday and haven’t been able to watch the past three games. But dear Christ does the fanbase paint a picture. Nonetheless, I do think Ralph’s experiment in August has some lessons for the January Jones project.

I suspect Saints have to play a back four, at least for the time being. Time is something Jones repeatedly says is needed for his project to work, but if that’s true then he needs to respect that a back four is what these Saints know right now, and he ought to let them run it. I understand why the Brighton game will have put him off it, but Brighton are just excellent right now, well out of our reach, and it’s a different side with Lavia back in for Diallo. Just like Ralph’s opening games against Spurs and Leeds, if your defenders make the kind of individual clangers they did against Brighton, Fulham and Forest, it doesn’t really matter if they’re lined up in a three, four or five. It’s the personnel. So drop Lyanco, trust Lavia-JWP to protect, and give yourself an extra man to build a functioning attack.

I say I ‘suspect’ because I didn’t watch the games and there are many ways for good managers to skin a cat. Perhaps Jones will find in his back three what Ralph did not. We have to hope. Marx wrote that history happens twice, the first time as tragedy and the second time as farce. I think Ralph’s end was tragic, but it depends who you ask. Conversely, Saints fans can all agree that so far Jones’ tactical experiments have delivered on the farce.

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