Why we just *might* keep Lavia this summer

Playing for a crap team in a crap league doesn't actually constitute a release clause

People often ask which game was the final nail in the coffin. When you knew. But like any solid piece of furniture, the coffin actually has many nails in, all as vital as the last. For me, they were Forest, Brentford, Leeds and West Ham. With just four nails it’s not an exquisite piece of carpentry, but it should be just sturdy enough to lower this dead team in the Championship where they belong.

Sunday was my first away game since December 2021. The last one gave me COVID a week before Christmas and I still preferred it (I had to isolate until Boxing Day). On Sunday I left early from both halves, something I never do at St. Mary’s, but as Taylor Swift once said: I’d seen this film before, and I didn’t like the ending.

The best thing about Sunday was, as ever, Romeo Lavia. In a game with all the usual failings and even Ward-Prowse going missing, he was a beacon, a reminder that movement through the lines isn’t just a pipedream. Sadly, you cannot penetrate dangerous areas on your own from DM, and all of Romeo’s ball progression came undone at the feet of Armstrong, Walcott, Elyounoussi and Mara. The contrast between this teenager and his teammates is blinding sometimes.

I think this is part of the reason Saints fans are so confident he’ll leave in the summer. The adulation we’ve heaped on the eighteen year-old is colossal, gushing even. So it’s understandable that Sellés has tried to manage his ego publicly, as he tries to shore up disciplinary standards and bridge dressing room divisions between young and old. But as a fan, it’s hard to respect that commitment to the team’s togetherness when the gulf in class is so glaring. Fans are actually embarrassed to make a Rolls-Royce player drive through the mud with us. It feels absurd that he plays for Southampton now, let alone in the Championship. Can you imagine, Romeo Lavia strolling around the park away to Rotherham, or Preston North End? So it’s difficult to countenance that he ever would.

But if we take stock, just for a second, let’s recall that there is no Rolls-Royce release clause. Saints being shit isn’t actually a breach of contract. Romeo Lavia is nine months into a five-year deal. Relegation clauses are not inserted into player contracts as a matter of routine, and it's not clear how a normal release clause would operate around Man City's buyback. So assuming we aren’t forced, if we sold him this summer, we could do so for a very large sum. That sum starts to fall when he’s two years from being a free agent, and falls drastically at 12 months. But three years is an age in football. A twenty year-old with three years left will be worth just as much as a nineteen year-old with four. So it’s not clear to me that there is a business case to sell this summer, and Sports Republic is predicated on developing assets and selling them at the peak of their value.

This is also consistent with Saints’ recent history. When we were a good selling club, I always felt the unspoken agreement was, we bring you to the Prem, you play well, have two good seasons in the shop window, then you go to a top-six club at peak value with minimal fuss. This was the case with Mané, Lallana, Lambert, Shaw and Chambers, who all did two years in the Premier League before moving on (okay maybe there was some fuss). Clyne, Schneiderlin and Van Dijk took three years, others were slower to develop.

As I recall, only Dejan Lovren broke the unspoken rule and did it in twelve months, and he really did kick up a stink. Such a move isn't totally off the cards then, but I think it would be more difficult for Lavia to force his way out like that. Lovren was 25, not as good, and on a deal that was one year shorter. I think there was more incentive with Lovren to strike while the iron was hot, and his subsequent season at Liverpool suggests we may have got a good deal. Lavia is 19 and represents a much more obvious long-term prospect for pretty much anyone who can afford him. It should both discourage the club and placate the player that he will still be a hot property in 2024.

The big stickler in all of this, is the £40m buy-back clause inserted into his contract by his previous owners, which crucially, becomes valid in 2024. This is the only thing I can fathom might give us a strong financial incentive to sell this summer, because next summer Man City will have first refusal over offers from other clubs and their own offer need not exceed £40m. To command a higher fee it may be necessary to sell this summer.

And that’s where it gets interesting, because you have to seriously consider how much Lavia is worth to us not just as saleable asset but as key player in a promotion campaign. Southampton would rightly be looking for an immediate return, and the raw materials are there, but Lavia is still our only reliable source of ball progression. If Lavia was sold, we’d need to dip into the market again for a no. 6, perhaps two, as well as sorting out the mess further up the field. The forward positions have been reinforced, but have they been improved? They certainly aren’t settled. Neither is centre-back. Defensive midfield and fullback are the only areas in which Saints don’t have unanswered questions, and KWP (and Salisu) is now late in his contract, and will leave whatever league we’re in. Replacing Lavia as well feels like a bridge too far if we want to go up. Even if we cannot command the same fee in 2024, I think it’s an open question: would you rather sell this summer for 50, maybe 60 million, adding to our squad issues and trying to fix them; or next summer for £40m and make starboy slum it in the Championship.

I suspect maybe that’s how it goes down on an personal level too — not pleasantly. Two weeks ago SaintsExtra reported, via Belgian journalist Sacha Tavolieri that Lavia’s father met with Manchester United representatives in mid-March to discuss a summer move. Tavolieri also claims Chelsea have also shown significant interest, and Man City remain vigilant given their buy-back clause. Romano has linked Arsenal. If the wheels are indeed in motion, it will take all of Ankersen’s hard-headedness to halt them. But my feeling is Rasmus has that in his locker, and I think he’s in decent position to say: “Look, before we took a chance on you, you hadn’t played a single minute of first-team football. You are nineteen. You signed a five-year deal nine months ago. Next summer you will be twenty, and your whole career will still be at your feet. Give us one more season.”

Perhaps I’m wrong. Perhaps there are nuances to the contract situation I don’t understand. Perhaps my priors are off, and sheer force of will on the part of a player who wants out has more power over contractual realities than I’ve estimated. Perhaps we don’t get to understand how it happens, but something goes on behind the curtain and the big clubs always just get what they want. But until I see either a clear business case or a legal obligation to release him, I won’t accept that it’s a done deal. As much as Southampton fans feel like we don’t deserve Lavia, that’s not how football business works. We can play hardball, if we want.

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